Early Data for Kerry Proved Misleading

"The 7-Hour Presidency of JFK2" was the ironic day-after headline on Slate's Web log called "kausfiles." The headline referred to the period of time on Tuesday when raw exit poll numbers favoring Kerry were flying through newsrooms and around the Internet.

Such data caused Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) to become so despondent at one point Tuesday afternoon that she e-mailed her mother: "All is lost."

Similarly, respected election watchers John Zogby and Frank Luntz declared Bush defeated before the sun had set on Washington. "I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn't materialize," Zogby said in a statement posted Wednesday on his website.

Convulsions over exit polls, which sample the opinions of voters as they emerge from polling places, rippled up to the highest levels of both parties. President Bush was briefed on the data by advisor Karl Rove, according to White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan, and there was concern in the Bush camp in the late afternoon.

By contrast, the Massachusetts senator and his top aides were buoyed by raw -- and entirely ephemeral -- numbers that suggested he would carry such key states as Florida and Ohio, both of which ultimately went for Bush.

Pollsters and other analysts interviewed Wednesday said the exit polls -- commissioned by a consortium of broadcast and cable television networks -- had actually served their true function. They are not designed to predict winners and losers, but rather to help news analysts spot demographic and other trends.

The problem Tuesday arose when the raw exit poll data were treated by some who received it as the equivalent of a full-scale poll, without considering its limitations. Often exit polls, which are conducted quickly with a relatively small sampling of voters, fail to capture the true overall shape of the electorate.

In addition, the tight time frames can magnify distortions, especially in samplings taken early in the day, before a full spectrum of voters has been measured. This is especially true in a close, volatile election.