WASHINGTON — U.S. troops captured Saddam Hussein, killed his much-loathed sons and handed power over to an Iraqi interim government. But none of that succeeded in tipping Iraqi public opinion decisively in favor of the United States.
Now, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other officials say they are hoping that crushing militants in Fallouja will serve as a milestone for winning the backing of the Iraqi public and deflating the lethal insurgency.
As U.S. Marines launched the most significant offensive in Iraq since the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, Rumsfeld argued Monday that Iraqi public opinion was at a "tipping point" and that defeating the insurgents in Fallouja could help nudge a large majority of Iraqis into supporting the U.S.-backed interim government.
"Success in Fallouja will deal a blow to the terrorists in the country, and should move Iraq further away from a future of violence to one of freedom and opportunity for the Iraqi people," Rumsfeld said during a Pentagon briefing.
The assault is not without risks, some experts noted Monday, because civilian casualties could turn public opinion against the U.S. and its Iraqi allies. And success would not necessarily endure after U.S. troops left.
Fallouja is considered the Iraqi insurgency's largest base of operations and, Rumsfeld said, eliminating it would be a military as well as a psychological defeat for the insurgents. Afterward, Iraqis are likely to turn against the insurgents and embrace the democratic process leading to parliamentary elections scheduled for January, he said.
"Over time you'll find that the process of tipping will take place, that more and more of the Iraqis will be angry about the fact that their innocent people are being killed by the extremists," he said. "And that they'll want elections, and the more they see the extremists acting against that possibility of elections, I think they'll turn on those people."
U.S. military officials believe that Fallouja is home not only to about 3,000 native fighters, but between 500 and 800 fanatical members of Jordanian-born militant Abu Musab Zarqawi's network.
A victory in Fallouja, where U.S. troops are augmented by Iraqi forces, would also be symbolic, officials say. Ever since the Marines were ordered in April to halt an offensive and stay out of Fallouja -- with control eventually passing into the hands of insurgent leaders -- Fallouja has served as a symbol of American impotence in Iraq. Residents of Iraq's so-called Sunni Triangle wrote songs and poems about a ragtag band of freedom fighters holding off the world's most powerful military.
