After a campaign nearly as long and contentious as the presidential race -- and that could end up as close -- Oracle Corp. could find out tonight whether it has enough votes to proceed with its hostile bid for rival PeopleSoft Inc.
Oracle has said it would walk away from the 17-month battle if it failed to convince holders of at least half of PeopleSoft's stock that its $24-a-share offer was a good deal. PeopleSoft's board has said that the No. 2 supplier of business software applications could do better on its own than in a union with the world's biggest database company.
PeopleSoft shareholders who want to accept Oracle's offer have until 9 p.m. PST to deliver the necessary documents.
But the voting has been so close that the final result may not be known until Monday. On Thursday, CalPERS said it had tendered its 0.4% stake in PeopleSoft to Oracle, bringing the votes that shareholders have made public close to a dead heat.
Although PeopleSoft enjoyed a tactical head start -- about 30% of its shares are owned by insiders opposed to Oracle and by passive investors unlikely to vote -- the company warned employees Thursday not to be surprised if Oracle won this round. Several analysts predicted that it would.
"It seems likely Oracle will hit that threshold," said Patrick McGurn of Institutional Shareholder Services, which advises investors during proxy fights.
If Oracle loses, it will mark the end of a Silicon Valley drama that combined a weighty debate about the future of software with the pettiness of schoolyard name-calling.
Executives at the Redwood City, Calif., company repeated promises this week that they would abandon their $8.8-billion quest if they didn't get the necessary support from PeopleSoft shareholders. "Our board is unanimous on this point," Oracle co-President Safra Catz told investors. "We will absolutely move on."
If Oracle does emerge with a majority of PeopleSoft's shares, it will press on. On Wednesday, a Delaware judge is scheduled to hear Oracle's arguments for dismantling PeopleSoft's "poison pill" anti-takeover defense. Analysts say the firm's arguments would be strengthened by the backing of PeopleSoft investors.
Should that fail, Oracle has a Thanksgiving Day deadline for submitting a slate of four directors to run for PeopleSoft's board. Analysts expect that the same investors who back the Oracle deal will lean toward electing the Oracle candidates, who would drop the poison pill.
