Although whites are no longer a majority in Orange County because of a sweeping demographic tide led by Democratic-leaning Latinos, the famously conservative region remains as Republican as ever.
The reason: Many of the new minority residents are newborns or newcomers who have yet to become citizens -- which means any profound political effect probably won't become evident for years.
Even then, it's unclear whether newcomers will change Orange County or Orange County will change the newcomers. Assimilation, complex forces behind political identification and the reasons people move to Orange County make clear predictions of a changing political personality unreliable.
"I don't believe demographics are destiny," said Stan Oftelie, a Democrat who is CEO of the Orange County Business Council. "The type of person who lives in Orange County is determined by reputation and reality. Our reputation is a conservative place, and, the reality is, this is a conservative place."
Barry Goldwater's presidential ambitions caught fire here in suburban kitchens, where housewives in coffee klatches began the grass-roots efforts that helped him win the 1964 California Republican primary, though he lost the election to President Lyndon B. Johnson. Richard Nixon was born -- and is buried -- in Yorba Linda and Ronald Reagan's early money backers were Orange County's wealthy business elite.
Orange County's conservatism has had its dark side too. Ku Klux Klansmen, running on anticrime platforms, won municipal elections in Anaheim and Santa Ana in the 1920s. And the virulent anticommunism of the John Birch Society found wide support there in the early 1960s.
But Orange County is changing. The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that for the first time in the county's 115-year history, non-Latino whites are no longer a majority. Most of the change is due to rapid growth of the county's Latino population, up 55% from 1990 to more than 875,000 in 2000. The Asian population, though smaller, is growing even more quickly: up 63% since 1990 to more than 240,000 in 2000.
Orange County's changing demographics have had subtle effects as Latinos and Vietnamese have gained seats on municipal commissions, city councils and school boards.
