Insiders wouldn't be surprised to see Kerry press that case further in this week's debate; he signaled that thrust Saturday when he described Bush as "stubborn, out of touch and unwilling to change course." That argument has always been the potential vulnerability in Bush's promises of resolve.
It's difficult to imagine, though, that Bush will cooperate by providing as irritated a performance as he delivered in the first debate. It shouldn't be too hard for Bush to present a more attractive face by smiling more, displaying more respect for his opponent and poking some fun at himself.
The real issue isn't whether Kerry can score points on Bush's demeanor, it's whether he can keep the race focused on Bush's record and direction. Though Bush led Kerry comfortably in polls through September, surveys indicate that the country remains much more closely divided about the president's performance.
Depending on the poll, Bush's approval rating stands either just above or below 50%. Bush still receives strong marks for his handling of terrorism. But in a Times poll last week, a majority of those surveyed said they disapproved of his handling of both Iraq and the economy.
With violence in Iraq surging, the number of Americans who believe the war was not worth the cost has edged past 50% again, several recent surveys have shown. And in the Times poll, a 51% majority of likely voters said they believed the country needed to follow a different policy direction from the course Bush has set; among debate-watchers that number rose even higher, a follow-up survey found.
These results don't mean Bush is doomed to lose a race centered on his record. Bush has improved his approval rating since spring. After his original justification (that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction) collapsed, Bush has rebuilt support for the Iraq war by portraying it as a first step toward reducing the threat of terrorism by spreading democracy through the Middle East.
Even so, the post-debate polls suggest that a race centered on Bush's performance, rather than Kerry's personal qualities, is likely to be much closer than the one-sided contest surveys measured in September.
Since the Democratic convention, Bush in one sense has defied political gravity. Almost all political analysts agree that races involving an incumbent president turn primarily on the judgment about that incumbent. Yet Bush, with help from Democratic mistakes, has deflected concerns about his own performance by raising so many concerns about Kerry.
