"Bush is still facing substantial doubts about the war in Iraq and his direction on the economy, yet because Kerry's favorability is so low ... he was unable to convert those opportunities," said Andrew Kohut, director of the nonpartisan Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.
It may be that even after his strong performance last week, too many voters have lost faith in Kerry to turn to him, even if they are ambivalent about Bush.
But the post-debate surveys indicate that Kerry began to resolve some of the doubts plaguing him -- primarily over his strength -- by challenging Bush so much more forcefully.
For two months, Bush has dominated the race mostly by discrediting Kerry as an alternative. But last week's debate showed that with so many voters still uneasy about Bush's direction, Kerry can strike a nerve when he says a vote for the president guarantees "more of the same."
In the end, this race may turn on whether Americans see more risk in change -- or continuity.
Ronald Brownstein's column appears every Monday. See current and past columns on The Times' website at www.latimes.com/brownstein.
