And the cost of health insurance premiums has risen by 59%, while the median family income has slightly declined.
All of these numbers present Bush with a conundrum, GOP and Democratic analysts agree. Like any incumbent, he wants to accentuate positive trends. But as he does, Kerry is prepared to argue that Bush won't solve problems facing the country because he won't acknowledge them -- an increasing refrain from the senator.
With that argument, the Kerry camp hopes to shift what might be called the burden of uncertainty: while Bush emphasizes the risks of change, his rival asserts that voters have more to fear from continuing along the president's path.
"You can make Bush the risky choice, because Bush is a man who won't admit a problem ... and therefore he cannot make things better in Iraq, he cannot make things better for the middle class," the senior Kerry aide said.
Bush faces a second hurdle. Polls consistently have found that voters trust Kerry more than him on most aspects of domestic policy. The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll showed Kerry scored better than Bush on nine of 10 domestic issues surveyed, including healthcare, Medicare, education and the economy. Bush led only on taxes.
Yet Republicans are upbeat about Bush's prospects in tonight's debate because he has settled on a strategy intended to reduce these vulnerabilities while challenging Kerry.
Aides say that as he defends his record, Bush aims to pivot as quickly as possible toward his plans for the future -- and to do so in a way that funnels the argument over specific issues into the more sweeping question of the role of government.
It is an article of faith among Bush strategists -- and many Democrats -- that the broader and more ideological the choice for voters, the better Republicans fare.
"In modern times, Republicans have never lost a presidential race that's been sharply defined ideologically," the senior GOP strategist said.
In the last two weeks, Bush has taken several steps to sharpen the race's ideological lines. One is to paint Kerry as a liberal, based on his voting record. At Friday's debate, the president also stressed his own conservative views on social issues, such as abortion.
Bush also has begun depicting what's at stake in the election in almost exactly the same terms he used during the final weeks of his 2000 contest with Democrat Al Gore.
