For the second year in a row, the Los Angeles Unified School District's enrollment projections have missed the mark: Nearly 5,000 students failed to show up, resulting in a loss of $22 million in state funding and the reassignment of dozens of teachers.
Although district officials said they had predicted lower numbers this year, they were surprised by the far lower numbers. The district, still the nation's second-largest, has an enrollment this year of 718,334.
Officials and demographers attribute the decline to a sluggish economy, declining birth rates and high Southern California housing costs.
"We obviously knew we were going to have some declining enrollment," said Supt. Roy Romer. "The size of it surprised me."
The official enrollment count, taken last Friday, occurs annually in the fourth week of school. This year, it is forcing principals to reassign 113 teachers. Parents, particularly those whose children are in elementary schools, tend to be frustrated by the classroom changes.
Last year, district officials overestimated enrollment in the elementary grades. The enrollment projection then was off by 10,000 students, representing a loss of $46 million in state funding.
United Teachers Los Angeles President John Perez said such inaccurate estimates have a traumatic effect on teachers and students, and that the district should have planned better this year. "They have been off more times than they have been on," he said.
For most schools, losing teachers means increasing class sizes. As part of their contracts, these teachers cannot be laid off, but many go into a "district pool" and work as substitutes until they can find a new job within the district, district officials said. Romer said that pool will save the district about $9 million in substitute costs, offsetting the $22-million loss in state funding.
Romer said district demographers cannot predict every factor that will affect enrollment, such as higher housing costs.
"We use all the demographic strategies everybody else uses," he said. Something is causing a shift in enrollment trends in Los Angeles, he said, and "we don't all know yet what it is."
Districts across the state have seen similar enrollment drops due to birth declines and tough economic times, according to Shelley Lapkoff, a school enrollment specialist in California. "A lot of schools are hurting; some are dipping into reserves," she said. "Others are having cutbacks in funding and teachers."
