As Chiron Corp. deals with its influenza vaccine mess, some competitors are preparing to take a shot at its $300-million-a-year business in the U.S.
GlaxoSmithKline, the largest vaccine maker in the world, and ID Biomedical, a small Canadian company, have announced plans to sell flu shots in the U.S. ID Biomedical could enter the market as soon as next year.
That would reduce the nation's reliance on two vaccine makers -- and the odds of another massive shortage.
The competitive interest in making flu vaccines could dispel the notion that there is no money to be made in the business. In fact, over the last five to six years, the wholesale price of a flu shot has jumped to more than $8 from less than $2, far outpacing increases in production costs. What's more, the market is growing. Demand has risen to about 80 million doses annually from half that in the mid-1990s. U.S. public health authorities aim to vaccinate 150 million Americans annually by 2010.
"It is a very attractive business," said Anthony Holler, ID Biomedical's chief executive.
Chiron is feverishly working with regulators in the U.S. and Britain to reopen its factory in Liverpool so that it can supply flu vaccine in 2005. But it could take more time for Chiron to regain the trust of the distributors, hospitals and clinics that were abruptly left without vaccine two weeks ago.
Authorities in Britain suspended Chiron's license to produce flu vaccine Oct. 5, saying they couldn't be certain that the shots were free of bacterial contamination. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration confirmed Friday that more than 40 million doses at the factory were unsafe for use.
Chiron's share of U.S. flu vaccine sales could plummet to 30% in 2005 from what would have been 50% this year, drug industry consultant David Webster said. The Emeryville, Calif., company would lose business to Aventis Pasteur Inc., right now the only other supplier of flu vaccine in the U.S.
Glaxo and ID Biomedical each have offered to provide a small number of shots to ease the shortage -- ID Biomedical 1.2 million doses and Glaxo an undisclosed amount -- a gesture that would give the firms a toehold in the U.S. market. Glaxo supplies flu vaccine to 70 countries outside the U.S. from a factory in Germany, and ID Biomedical provides 75% of Canada's flu shots.
