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There's Still a Perfect Way to Mess Up BCS Ranking

The Inside Track | ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL

October 18, 2004|Chris Dufresne

The first bowl championship series standings will be released today and, just like laundry soap on television, they are being advertised as "new and improved."

The "new" part is indisputable.


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For years, college football BCS leaders kept adding elements to the fangled formula until the standings became as convoluted as the U.S. tax code.

Even after all that, the BCS still didn't work, last year spitting out an Oklahoma-Louisiana State showdown for the BCS national title even though USC was No. 1 in both the "human" polls.

The fiasco led to outrage, a split national title and a return to the BCS drawing board.

In essence, in the off-season, the BCS opted for the Richard Simmons deal-a-meal program.

The formula was downsized and simplified for public consumption.

Gone are the quality-win component, strength of schedule and ratings guru Jeff Sagarin's having more say in the national-title process than Pete Carroll.

The "new" formula will give the bulk of the power back to the pollsters. The Associated Press and ESPN/USA Today coaches' polls each will account for one-third of the formula, with the average of six computers (after the high and low rankings are discarded) making up the other third.

Whether the "new" BCS proves to be "improved" is debatable.

The new formula all but ensures that what happened to USC last year won't happen again. The standings are weighted such that if USC remains No. 1 in both polls, there is virtually no chance the computer component can knock the Trojans below the No. 2 BCS position.

Yet, even as the BCS is set to unveil its new product, another potential disaster scenario awaits.

At this early stage, the storm brewing is like one of those hurricanes churning out in the Atlantic and we here at the BCS Weather Channel have no idea whether it will make landfall.

The issue the new BCS doesn't address is this: What happens if, at season's end, there are more than two undefeated teams?

What happens if there are three, four or five?

What happens if one of those teams, Auburn, ends up 12-0 and shut out of the BCS title game after it emerges as champion of the Southeastern Conference, arguably the nation's best?

The simple answer is "it won't happen."

Never in the six-year history of the BCS have three schools in the top 10 finished with no losses.

Yet, there are interesting scenarios developing.

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