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Weaker Buck Has Broad Appeal

MARKET BEAT

October 24, 2004|Tom Petruno | Times Staff Writer

What nobody wants, however, is a free-falling currency. The best-case scenario is that the dollar would continue to slowly work its way lower against major currencies, and that foreign investors would neither abruptly dump U.S. securities nor suddenly stage a buyer's strike.

And as usual in discussions of the global economy, all roads go through China, the emerging economic powerhouse. China must bow to growing international pressure and allow its rigged currency to gently rise against the dollar, most economists say. That would make Chinese exports more expensive for Americans, and American exports cheaper for Chinese.

If China and much of the rest of Asia revalued their artificially depressed currencies, their appetite for American bonds also could decrease over time, helping to force the issue of a balanced federal budget.

Would this all involve pain for both America and Asia? Probably. But it would be less disruptive in a deliberate process than in a sudden crisis sparked by a speculator-fueled plunge in the dollar.

Tom Petruno can be reached at tom.petruno@latimes.com.

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