WASHINGTON — Diverging trends in the three largest battleground states point toward a volatile and tense finish in the presidential race, new Times polls show.
The surveys find President Bush holding an 8-percentage-point lead among likely voters in Florida, Sen. John F. Kerry opening a 6-percentage-point advantage in Ohio, and the two men battling to a dead heat in Pennsylvania.
These three states have drawn more time and attention from the candidates than any others, and many analysts in both parties think that whoever wins two of them will have a clear advantage in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
The Times' results portray a slightly closer race in Pennsylvania than most other recent public surveys, which have shown Kerry with leads of 2 to 5 percentage points.
In Ohio and Florida, surveys over the last few weeks have oscillated, with Kerry and Bush trading the lead depending on the poll. But Kerry's advantage in Ohio in The Times survey is larger than in any other public poll this month, and Bush's edge in Florida is larger than in any other recent public survey except a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted last week that also found him leading by 8 points.
The conflicting public polling results, especially in Ohio and Florida, seem certain to reinforce both campaigns' belief that these three vital states remain within reach for each of them -- with their competing efforts to turn out the vote likely to tip the balance.
"Unless something breaks loose in the next couple of days ... it is going to be a muscle campaign on election day," said John C. Green, a University of Akron political scientist.
The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 941 registered voters in Florida, of which 510 were deemed likely to vote; 1,026 registered voters in Ohio, of which 585 were deemed likely to vote; and 927 in Pennsylvania, of which 585 were deemed likely to vote. The survey was conducted Friday through Tuesday, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points among likely voters.
Ohio (with 20 electoral votes) and Florida (with 27) are the top targets for Kerry among states that Bush carried last time. Pennsylvania (with 21 electoral votes) is the top target for Bush among large states that Democrat Al Gore carried last time.
