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Violence May Force Iraq to Bypass Hotspots in Election

Plan would allow voting to proceed in January but might undermine credibility of the results.

The Conflict in Iraq

September 06, 2004|Patrick J. McDonnell, Times Staff Writer

The election is to choose a transitional government charged with writing a constitution and overseeing full elections to be held later. But many Iraqis and outsiders have expressed doubt about how a legitimate election can be held in a society reeling from almost daily bombings and other attacks.

Ideally, experts say, voters should feel free from intimidation and candidates should be able to move freely -- elusive goals in a country where assassinations, abductions and ambushes have become commonplace. No candidates have begun campaigning publicly, and there are few signs of electoral activity. No plan has been announced for voter registration or what documents will be needed.


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How to provide security at a projected 9,000 polling places is among the momentous challenges facing Iraqi and Western officials now trying to craft a workable election blueprint for the nation of 24 million.

"There's no scenario being ruled out," a U.S. official here said. "The idea is that people in one or two cities cannot be allowed to veto an election."

One possible option, officials say, is to allow voters from places like Fallouja -- with an estimated population of 280,000 -- to cast their ballots at polling places in designated safe zones outside of their towns.

U.S.-led forces, Metz said, have also not ruled out military action before the vote to win back control in such places as Fallouja and Samarra, a city 60 miles north of Baghdad that is essentially controlled by insurgents.

By December, authorities hope more than 200,000 Iraqi police and troops will be providing primary security for much of the country, with U.S.-led multinational forces as a backup, he said. Intensive training of Iraqi forces is underway nationwide.

"I don't think today you could hold elections," Metz said. "Our goal is to get ourselves to local control ... so that we can conduct an election in January that is recognized internally and externally as a legitimate election."

Excluding polling booths from an entire city or cities, though, may be perilous. The plan would probably alienate those excluded from voting -- most likely minority Sunni Muslims, who have spearheaded the insurgency in places like Fallouja. It could also detract from the international legitimacy of the critical vote.

Yet skipping some dangerous areas, analysts say, may be better than delaying national elections long demanded by many Iraqis, especially the country's Shiite Muslim majority.

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