WASHINGTON — In the first full week after the Republican convention, President Bush blitzed 17 states with television commercials in an effort to capitalize on his momentum in battlegrounds from coast to coast.
At the same time, Sen. John F. Kerry spent his TV dollars in a much narrower pool of eight crucial states. Democratic allies, meanwhile, sought to keep Kerry's chances alive in Arizona, Colorado and Missouri with advertisements in those Bush-leaning states.
That is the current picture of the electoral battlefield based on interviews Tuesday with top Democratic and Republican strategists and independent analysts as well as new data on TV ad buying patterns compiled for The Times.
"Bush is continuing with the national battleground strategy, to extend his convention bounce," said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ads for The Times. "Kerry is now cherry-picking. He's trying to extend his money and extend his buys. Either he's trying to husband his resources or he's saying the playing field is shrinking."
Another analyst said The Times' data showed the map was tilting toward Bush.
"It's getting close to where [Kerry] has got to get an inside straight," said Kenneth M. Goldstein, director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project.
He noted that Kerry and the Democratic Party were no longer advertising in Virginia and Louisiana -- states targeted earlier in the year -- and were barely on the air in Arkansas and North Carolina.
Bush is not advertising in any of those states, which he carried in 2000. "The fact that Bush is spending zero there tells you all you need to know," Goldstein said.
Kerry spent more than $3.4 million combined in those four states earlier in the year.
Strategists and analysts cautioned that ad-buying patterns are likely to fluctuate between now and the Nov. 2 election. Senior Kerry advisor Tad Devine said the Democrat intended to expand his list of target states in coming weeks.
But for now, Kerry's targets are shrinking.
Before the Democratic convention in July, Kerry was targeting at least 20 states, including the home state of his vice presidential nominee, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.
By contrast, from Sept. 5 through Saturday, Kerry targeted only eight states, The Times' data show: Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia.
