Long a Republican Bulwark, a Growing Arizona Is in Play

"I think it's time for a change," said Gomez, 36, who moved here from New Mexico less than two years ago, frets about the economy and plans to vote for Sen. John F. Kerry.

Violet Newton represents the old Arizona, where residents have chosen a Democratic presidential candidate only once since 1948, government regulation is well nigh an expletive and President Bush just leapt ahead in the polls after months in a virtual dead heat with his rival.

"We don't believe in abortion," said the retired Realtor from Sun City as she relaxed in her electric cart with its faux leopard seat cover and "Bush-Cheney" bumper sticker. "We don't believe in same-sex marriage. That tears the family down. We choose the man who's for the family."

Newton's Arizona has long been a Republican bastion. Gomez's Arizona, especially as viewed through Phoenix's booming suburbs, is more politically complex and unpredictable.

"The population of the state is growing rapidly, and we're getting an influx of people from around the country, a lot of Californians," said Fred Solop, professor of political science at Northern Arizona University. "The political culture has been historically Republican, yet the culture is in flux

With 10 electoral votes -- up from eight after the 2000 census -- Arizona is one of the biggest prizes among swing states west of the Mississippi River.

Bush beat Vice President Al Gore here four years ago by 6 percentage points, a margin viewed as surprisingly small. With the state's population continuing to grow -- swelled in large part by Latinos -- Democrats think they have a good chance to steal Arizona from the GOP in November.

Kerry has campaigned in Arizona three times since clinching his party's presidential nomination in March; his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, is scheduled to visit on Sept. 22.

Sen. John Edwards, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, packed more than 10,000 supporters into the Tucson convention center Monday, where the crowd roared its approval as he admonished Republicans for scoffing at his notion of two Americas divided by race and class.