Republicans remain confident they will hold Arizona, but the party is hardly taking it for granted. Bush has stopped in the state three times this year. And during the first full week of September, the president and the Republican National Committee spent $162,000 on television commercials targeting Arizonans, almost twice as much as the Democrats spent.
Politically, the state's economic picture could cut either way. The July unemployment rate, recently announced, dropped to 4.4%, compared with 5.5% nationwide. And, unlike many parts of the country, Arizona has gained jobs since Bush took office, especially during the last two years.
Still, the manufacturing and technology sectors remain on the decline. Companies are keeping their staffing "lean," said Don Wehbey, senior economist at the state Department of Economic Security.
The greatest job growth has been in service industries, where wages tend to be low and benefits slim. And overall, job creation is not keeping up with population growth.
Democrats add the checkered economy to other factors and see opportunity in November.
An energized state party helped Democrat Janet Napolitano, then state attorney general, become governor in 2002. And the political loyalties of Arizonans increasingly are up for grabs -- nearly one in four registered voters is an independent.
Republicans, however, still make up 40% of the electorate. And there are signs that the state's GOP heritage may be reasserting itself.
A poll taken for the Arizona Republic and released last week showed Bush ahead of Kerry, 54% to 38%. In contrast, the newspaper's polls in August and June had Bush ahead of Kerry by just 3 percentage points, a lead within the survey's margin of error.
The new poll numbers ricocheted through both parties, with Kerry officials insisting that Bush was simply benefiting from a successful convention, though Republicans said the figures were evidence of Arizona's proud GOP tradition.
At least one political scientist declared the race largely over.
"Bush is clearly ahead now in Arizona, has been slightly ahead for several months and will win Arizona ... unless there's some major thing that shakes up the system," said Bruce Merrill, director of the Walter Cronkite Media Research Center at Arizona State University and head of the university's Cactus State Poll.
