Nonsense, said Jim Pederson, the state Democratic Party chairman. "I could eat crow, but within 30 days, we're going to be dead even -- as we were before the [Republican] convention," Pederson said. "And it'll be a sprint to the finish. Because the issues that existed before the convention still do."
And so do the demographics, which have fueled change in Arizona for more than a decade. Between 1990 and 2000, the state population grew 40%. By 2003, the latest statistics available, it had jumped an additional 8.8%, to nearly 5.6 million people.
In the first three years of the 21st century, Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and Tempe, added more new residents than any U.S. county but Los Angeles. Latinos make up a quarter of the state's population and could reach more than 40% in the next decade or so.
Although some of the growth has been in Phoenix's more Republican suburbs, political scientist Richard Herrera of Arizona State University said the demographic trends had "helped Democrats more than Republicans. The statewide races have become closer. The governor and attorney general are Democrats." Elizabeth Fraser, 34, is evidence of Herrera's theory. The registered independent was a lawyer in the San Francisco Bay Area, but her husband couldn't find a job. A year ago, the couple packed up their "No War In Iraq" window sign and moved from Berkeley to an earth-tone subdivision bordered by cotton fields on the western edge of Phoenix.
Her husband found work at a defense contractor, and they can afford to live on his salary while Fraser stays home to care for their 10-month-old daughter, Nuala. But Fraser worries about the economy and plans to return to work."We're saving up money because we don't know what the future holds," she said.
She'll vote for Kerry because of her concerns about the economy and the war in Iraq. But she added, "I would be really, really surprised if Kerry could pull it off in Arizona."
Fellow Arizona newcomer Eric Ivey, 30, acknowledges that the economy has been troubled in recent years. But he points to reports of improved job growth and dropping unemployment rates and concludes that Bush has done a fine job overall.
It's unfair that "Bush got the blame" for the economic downturn, said Ivey, who manages housekeeping services at the Desert Sky Mall in Phoenix. "Just like [former President] Clinton got the credit for the dot-com boom. It was going to happen anyway."
