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Democrat Takes Off the Gloves on Iraq Debate

With public support for the war rising despite increased bloodshed, Kerry changes tack, saying Bush's strategy is headed for failure.

THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE | NEWS ANALYSIS

September 17, 2004|Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer

The feistier rhetoric comes none too soon for those Kerry advisors frustrated and concerned about recent polls that showed the slowly rising support for the war, despite the continuing bloodshed across Iraq.

"You and I know John hasn't made the case [against Bush on the war] so far," said one of Kerry's top foreign policy confidantes. "His failure has been in the critique."


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The stakes in the campaign debate remain enormous. Polls consistently have found Bush receives solid public support for his handling of terrorism, while his ratings on the economy and other domestic concerns are much more equivocal.

To many analysts, that leaves the public judgment on his handling of Iraq as the election's potential tipping point. "This is the swing issue in the campaign," said conservative strategist William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard and a staunch supporter of the war.

A modest but unmistakable uptick in public support for the war has been evident in several polls. In an ABC/Washington Post survey early this month, 51% of registered voters thought the war has been worth the cost; in June, 47% felt that way. Likewise, the share of voters who said the war had contributed to America's long-term security increased to 58% from 51% in June.

Most dramatically, the percentage of Americans who said it was "a mistake" to send troops to fight in Iraq fell to 38% in an early September CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. That's down from 54% as recently as July.

Bush's lead over Kerry in polls asking whom voters trust more to handle Iraq also has widened again, often reaching double digits after narrowing or even vanishing earlier.

Overall, public opinion on the war essentially has returned to its position before the spring's reversals in Iraq, including the disclosures of prisoner abuse by U.S. troops.

"We are back more or less where we were before the Abu Ghraib [prison] scandal," said Peter Feaver, a Duke University political scientist who specializes in public opinion about national security.

Analysts point to three main reasons for the shift. One is the establishment of an interim Iraqi government in June, which reduced the visibility of the U.S. role in the conflict. That, in turn, contributed to reduced attention to the war in the U.S. media for much of the summer.

But many analysts believe a third key has been Bush's progress in linking the Iraq war to the war on terrorism -- an effort even some Kerry advisors admit has been effective.

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