Bush has insisted that the U.S. can reduce the terrorism threat only by encouraging democracy to flower in the Middle East -- and that the effort to build a stable and democratic Iraq is an indispensable first step in that generation-long process.
With these arguments, Lockhart said Bush has been "very successful" in reframing "Iraq as part of a broader effort to fight the war on terror."
These Bush gains have strengthened the hand of the Kerry advisors urging the Democrat to confront the president over the war more directly.
The senior Kerry foreign policy confidante said that throughout the spring and summer, the candidate had been too cautious. Many of Kerry's top political advisors, such as media consultant Bob Shrum, have argued that voters in focus groups "don't feel comfortable" with charges that Bush's decisions have left America less secure.
Others say Kerry has been constrained by fears that if he intensified his criticism of Bush's strategy in Iraq, he would give more credence to the GOP charge that he is a "flip-flopper," given that he voted in 2002 to provide the president with the authority to launch the war.
The result is that even as violence in Iraq has escalated, Kerry had been stressing the charge that the war was costing Americans too much because Bush had failed to attract enough international support.
But the Kerry confidante said the candidate was signaling a shift toward a more aggressive posture. And several aides say they expect Kerry to more clearly charge that Bush's course in Iraq is leading toward failure.
"Kerry this week is field-testing some very harsh language, which you never heard from him before," said the confidante, who asked not to be named when discussing the campaign's strategy.
Kerry also has moved closer to embracing arguments against the Iraq war raised by former White House counterterrorism czar Richard A. Clarke and former NATO Supreme Commander Wesley K. Clark, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic presidential nomination. Rather than advancing the war on terrorism, as Bush contends, these critics maintain that the invasion of Iraq has set back America's cause by diverting resources from battling Al Qaeda terrorists and inciting anti-American attitudes in the Arab world.
A sharper critique from Kerry could erase some of the increase in positive public attitudes about the war by moving more Democratic voters back toward opposing it, Feaver said. But most experts agree the rising poll numbers more likely would be reversed by the continuing strength of the Iraqi insurgency, which has cast doubt over Bush's pledge to hold elections for a permanent government in January.
"Right now, Bush is getting the benefit of the doubt on Iraq," Kristol said. "But there are still doubts, and if the violence gets worse and Kerry can settle on a consistent message, I don't think Bush is out of the woods on Iraq. And therefore, he's not out of the woods on the election."
