WASHINGTON — To hear President Bush talk about his plans for a second term, voters might think that the era of big government spending is back.
From his proposal to overhaul Social Security to his commitment to fighting terrorism and his initiatives on health, education and job training, the agenda Bush is spelling out in speeches and campaign documents calls for the robust use of government money.
All this comes from the same candidate who promises to cut the federal budget deficit in half by 2009 and whose Cabinet agencies are preparing for some serious belt-tightening of domestic programs if he is reelected.
That mixed message -- a smaller deficit, but costly new initiatives -- may have more appeal to swing voters than the simpler message of old-fashioned conservatism, which calls for smaller government and less spending.
But many analysts say Bush's second-term promises may be a poor predictor of what he could actually accomplish. Even some administration allies say it would be nearly impossible for Bush to achieve all his ambitious objectives and still halve the deficit by 2009.
"Can it be done?" said G. William Hoagland, top budget aide to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.). "Sure. On paper. But politically it's very difficult."
To do it all, Hoagland said, "lots of other things would have to be eliminated, terminated."
The result: Unlike Bush's 2000 campaign platform -- whose major elements of tax cuts, school accountability and prescription drug subsidies for the elderly were enacted -- his 2004 promises may have to be sharply scaled back or abandoned if he wins a second term.
Bush has made a big issue of arguing that Sen. John F. Kerry's health and education campaign promises do not square with his promise to reduce the deficit. Bush argues that his Democratic rival would have to raise taxes or add to the deficit to enact his spending plans.
But if he wins reelection, Bush will have tough choices of his own. Some analysts predict that much of his agenda would wither if he achieved what seemed to be his top priority: making permanent the tax cuts enacted in his first term. Doing so would cut government revenue by more than $1 trillion between 2005 and 2014.
"The one sure thing that will happen if he becomes president is the tax cuts will be permanent," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, a forecasting company in West Chester, Pa. "That will result in large, persistent budget deficits, so he will not be able to follow through on his other pledges."
