Allawi Effectiveness Hinges on Credibility

"He understands what is going on there," Bush said at one point. "After all, he lives there."

Allawi's visit has thrust him into the debate just as Iraq has returned to the center of the presidential race.

In a speech Monday, Kerry offered his most comprehensive indictment of Bush's strategy in Iraq, depicting the conflict as a distraction from the war on terrorism that had weakened U.S. security.

On Thursday, Kerry unveiled a new ad declaring, "We need a fresh start to fix the mess in Iraq."

Today, Kerry plans a speech spotlighting his argument that Bush's focus on Iraq has caused him to lose sight of other priorities in the struggle against terrorism. He also intends to elaborate on his own plan to combat terrorism.

Kerry aides acknowledge that they see this sharpening focus on Iraq as their best hope of erasing the president's lead. "We are standing in front of the door and Iraq is the key to opening the door," one top Kerry aide said.

Bush's standing has advanced in lock step with improved public attitudes about his decision to invade Iraq. The percentage of Americans who said they thought the war was the right thing to do has edged upward in polls since the spring, when public support plummeted amid the Abu Ghraib prison scandal and rising U.S. casualties.

But there is evidence that the recent surge of violence in Iraq is reversing that trend. In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday, 52% of registered voters said they thought the war was not worth the cost; 47% said they did not think the war would end in "a victory for the United States," whereas 41% predicted it would.

It was precisely those doubts Allawi targeted this week.

Like Bush, he insisted that elections for a transitional national assembly would take place in January. He said the international media had discounted evidence of progress in the country, from a national polio vaccination campaign that he said had reached more than "90% of all Iraqi children" to what he claimed was the reestablishment of security in 15 of 18 provinces.

Denying a key Kerry criticism, Allawi in his speech Thursday insisted that "the training of Iraqi security forces is moving forward briskly and effectively." He repeatedly said Iraq didn't need more U.S. troops and dismissed the possibility of civil war raised in a recent National Intelligence Estimate, part of which was leaked to the media.