That dynamic suggests that a critical question in Thursday's debate will be whether Kerry can restore enough confidence in his leadership ability on Iraq to benefit from the lingering doubt over Bush's policies there.
"At this point, people know that they don't like the way things are going in Iraq, they know they don't particularly like the way Bush is dealing with it, so the last question is whether John Kerry is resolute and strong enough to deal with it," said a senior Kerry advisor, who requested anonymity.
The foreign policy debate comes as Iraq has dominated the presidential race for nearly two weeks.
In speeches last week at New York University and Temple University, Kerry heartened many Democrats by sharpening his war criticism of Bush.
In those speeches, which aides point to as guideposts for his debate message, Kerry distilled his attack over Iraq to two central arguments.
He has pressed his "fantasyland" case, arguing that conditions in Iraq are far worse than Bush is depicting. Kerry also maintains that the war in Iraq has set back the struggle against terrorism by diverting attention from Al Qaeda, alienating allies and inciting anti-American sentiment in the Islamic world.
Without committing to a specific timetable, Kerry said in his New York speech that he could begin withdrawing American troops from Iraq next summer -- and "realistically aim" to bring all of the troops home over four years -- by persuading other nations to send more forces.
Bush and his backers have responded to Kerry with three key arguments.
They have said conditions in Iraq are improving. "I was incredibly impressed with the overwhelmingly high morale of the United States forces over there and the determination of the interim [Iraqi] government," said Rep. Wally Herger (R-Marysville), who participated in the same congressional trip to Iraq as Tauscher.
They have portrayed Kerry's sharper criticism as political opportunism that clashes with his 2002 vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq and subsequent comments that defended the decision to take on Hussein.
And they have insinuated that Kerry is undermining the war effort by signaling his intention to begin withdrawing troops as president and by criticizing Bush's strategy in the conflict.
"You can embolden an enemy by sending a mixed message," Bush said at a news conference with interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi last week. "You can dispirit the Iraqi people by sending mixed messages."
