AMMAN, Jordan — Yasser Arafat lies buried in a parking lot in Ramallah, and prospects for the Palestinian cause seem as flat and black as the asphalt surrounding his makeshift tomb.
There are many who are still pressing for big-time, end-game diplomacy, but reality argues otherwise. Four years of bloody conflict have left Palestinians and Israelis wary and bitter, and both sides seem unable or unwilling at the moment to strike the grand bargain necessary to end their conflict.
If the Oslo peace process was a religion for believers, then the process launched at the Sharm el Sheik summit last month was more a business proposition for pragmatists. But such is the fate reserved for peoples whose leaders pass up or bungle the rare moments of opportunity history provides.
Right now, the Middle East is rocked by much bigger ideas and possibilities than ending the shepherds' war between Israelis and Palestinians. A much criticized U.S. invasion has traumatized the entire region and awoken a political culture that's been in a coma for half a century. That the fairest and freest elections ever held in the Arab world took place in Palestine and Iraq under Israeli and U.S. military occupations attest not only to the depth of dysfunction in Arab politics but also to the hunger for change.
The assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has galvanized public opinion against the Syrian presence there. This turn of events may prove devastating to Syrian power and prestige. And it could trigger, over time, changes within Syria that could end the era of the Assads.
These new forces have been brewing in the Arab world for a while now. Transitions from fathers to sons in Syria, Jordan and Morocco have both raised expectations for change and weakened the capacity of traditional structures to resist it. The longtime debate between the haves and have-nots over economics has been joined by a new one between the cans and the cannots over politics -- those who can participate in choosing their legislators, politicians and leaders and those who cannot.
This conversation will be a long one and will play out in time, most likely with considerable trauma. But there's no turning back now. Arab regimes in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and elsewhere whose political legitimacy has been questioned will probably be forced to co-opt, suppress or give in to growing pressure for more transparency and participation in governance. Arab publics shudder in the face of the chaos and lawlessness of change in Iraq, but they are fascinated by the peaceful demonstrations in Lebanon that have forced a much stronger power to change its policies.
