Antonio Villaraigosa has opened an 18-point lead over incumbent James K. Hahn in the Los Angeles mayoral race, with nearly every large voting bloc supporting his effort to bounce Hahn from City Hall, according to a new Times poll.
The survey shows that Hahn has yet to rebuild the historic coalition of South L.A. blacks and San Fernando Valley whites that thrust him into office four years ago. Both groups favor Villaraigosa by wide margins in the May 17 runoff.
The councilman and former state Assembly speaker holds a double-digit lead over Hahn among likely voters in every region of the city. He runs far ahead of the mayor among whites, blacks, Latinos, liberals, moderates, Democrats, Jewish voters and union members.
There are glimmers of hope for Hahn. Republicans -- roughly a quarter of the city's electorate -- firmly favor his reelection, as do conservatives. He is also receiving more credit for accomplishments now than in polls earlier in the campaign -- particularly for the drop in crime.
If the election were held today, the poll found, Villaraigosa would win, 53% to 35%, with 12% undecided.
The survey reflects the tough battle that Hahn faces in the campaign's final weeks. Nearly two-thirds of likely voters say that Hahn's policies have left the city no better off and that Los Angeles needs to change direction. That negative view complicates the mayor's attempt to gain the traction needed to overtake Villaraigosa.
"We need a different face, a different approach -- maybe some fresh ideas," said poll respondent William Yates, 43, a Venice musician who captured the city's prevailing mood in a follow-up interview. He voted for Hahn four years ago but plans to switch this time to Villaraigosa.
The poll suggests that the councilman is well placed to make history by rallying a coalition of blacks, whites and Latinos behind a Latino candidate for mayor of Los Angeles. If elected, he would be the city's first Latino mayor in 133 years.
Still, the dynamics of the race could shift in unpredictable ways. Hahn and Villaraigosa are each prepared to close the campaign with a brutal assault of television ads that could damage either one of them. Each has sought to raise doubts about his opponent's trustworthiness.
Debra Foss, a Sunland Republican in her early 40s who works for a music company, said Hahn was "doing an OK job" and Villaraigosa "lacks character."
"Hahn's the better of the two," she said.
