VATICAN CITY — The subtle campaign to succeed Pope John Paul II, a condensed season of hushed conversations and private reflection, gives way in earnest today to the effort to elect a new leader for the Roman Catholic Church.
Solemnly, 115 red-cloaked cardinals will say Mass and then gather in the Sistine Chapel for a ritualistic, secret meeting known as a conclave. Within a few hours, they will begin dropping ballots into silver, bronze and gold-plated urns.
It takes 77 votes to get elected.
"I'm just trying to put myself in God's hands and ask the Lord to help me choose the one" he selected, Cardinal Roger M. Mahony of Los Angeles said in an interview Sunday. "I look around that hall each day this week, and I say, 'The new pope is sitting here! He's sitting here!' "
Gone are the days when emperors, kings and rich families ordered up a pope and threatened cardinals with starvation, prison or worse to influence their choice. Still, the election follows rules that trace to medieval times, last updated by John Paul in 1996.
In public comments before imposing a gag order on themselves April 9, and in less formal conversations since, several cardinals have signaled which way they were leaning.
And then there are other hints that have burst into public view. One cardinal writes a full-page editorial in a Catholic newspaper; another publishes a conveniently timed book. Supporters of still another show up in St. Peter's Square with a huge banner promoting him.
However, several cardinals said they had not yet made their choice.
"It would sure be nice if the hand of God just came down from the ceiling and said, 'This one.' It would make life a lot easier!" Mahony said. "But that's not happening yet."
The electors' final decision will probably be based partly on the philosophical priorities and religious convictions of each participant, and partly on the persuasive powers of a few "kingmakers." Much is at stake, and the election could be quite contentious.
The Catholic Church is hugely divided, and many of its 1 billion members are seriously disaffected. There are not enough priests to tend to the faithful; former adherents are turning to other religions in many parts of the world; the church's teachings are falling on deaf ears. Catholics everywhere are watching to see in what direction the new pontiff will take them.
