Sacramento — Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would suffer a severe bashing if his special election were held today. Californians are sour on him and his pet "reforms," according to a new poll.
In fact, voters are sour on many things: the very idea of a special election, the direction of the state, the Republican president and the war in Iraq.
Of course, the election won't be held until Nov. 8, giving Schwarzenegger more than 10 weeks to pitch voters. He's all over puffy talk radio this week, and after Labor Day he'll be running tens of millions worth of TV ads.
The governor's chief adversaries -- the public employees unions -- have been attacking him in TV ads for months, and his counter-barrages have been lighter and weaker. So it's way too early to count the guy out. And I suspect many voters are still rooting for him.
But those likely-voter poll numbers released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California indeed are bleak for Schwarzenegger:
* The governor's job rating is down around the Bush level: 41% approval, 50% disapproval. (Among all adults, it's a dismal 34%-54%.) Schwarzenegger's popularity has plummeted since January, when his job rating was a lofty 63%-32%. Until recently, he has been too pugnacious and politically polarizing.
* Proposition 76, the governor's proposed spending cap, seems to be running out of contention: Yes 28%, no 61%. At this early stage of a campaign, before opposition attack ads hit full stride, the yes number should be at least 50%. Schwarzenegger can take some solace in the fact that he hasn't really begun to make a case for the proposal. But, of course, this is also a colossal error.
* Proposition 77, the measure to strip the Legislature of its political redistricting power and give it to retired judges, also is faring poorly: Yes 34%, no 49%. Democratic voters seem to be seeing this particular proposal for what it is: less of a political reform than a Republican power play. It's opposed by 62% of Democrats. But only 51% of Republicans support it, perhaps because of many conservatives' natural suspicion of courts.
* The $53-million special election is considered a waste. By 60% to 36%, voters say the ballot measures should have been put off until the next regular election in June 2006.
* President Bush and the war aren't helping the Republican image among Democrats and independents in California, as voters become increasingly polarized and see Schwarzenegger as a GOP partisan. Bush's job disapproval is at 58%, and 61% of voters believe the war was not worth it.
