In 2000, Texas Gov. George W. Bush spent more than $20 million in California as part of a vigorous effort to carry the state in his first presidential bid. He lost to Vice President Al Gore by 1.3 million votes.
In 2004, seeking reelection, President Bush virtually ceded the state to Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, spending minimal time and resources here. He lost California by 1.2 million votes.
Two approaches -- fight and flight -- produced the same result and showed just how inhospitable California has been to this president. His appearances in the state over the last two days have been limited to hand-picked audiences in the safe GOP harbors of Coronado in San Diego County and Rancho Cucamonga in San Bernardino County. Underscoring Bush's poor image, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was notably absent from the president's side, departing from the usual political protocol.
Still, party strategists and outside analysts say national Republicans would be foolhardy to write off California in presidential elections. The state is simply too big, too wealthy and too important to be continually ignored, they say.
Moreover, they suggest, the state is more competitive than Bush's travails indicate. The right Republican -- "a different kind of Republican," as several observers phrased it -- could put California back in play as early as 2008, with consequences well beyond the state's lengthy borders.
Bush has proved that Republicans can win the White House without California, but "it's a tough go, even with an incumbent president," said Rhodes Cook, a nonpartisan campaign analyst in Washington, D.C. "It seems to me if Republicans are really going to be a long-running majority party, California needs to be a part of that majority. Otherwise, they're going to be a tenuous and not very long-running majority."
Political fortunes can change quickly. California was a reliable Republican redoubt for more than a generation until then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton won here in 1992. As president, he quickly turned the state into a Democratic stronghold.
Demographic changes were important to Clinton's success, as Latino clout grew and conservatives left Southern California for the low-tax bastions of Arizona, Nevada and other Rocky Mountain states. But Clinton also lavished plenty of attention on California, visiting often and establishing a special White House liaison whose sole responsibility was the care and feeding of the Golden State.
