California's continuing transformation to an older, less-educated and more ethnically diverse state will heighten demand for better schools and more medical, child and elder care over the next 15 years, according to a new report.
The nonpartisan California Budget Project, aiming to influence the state agenda next year, emphasized that top state officials need to focus not only on rebuilding California's aging roads and infrastructure, but also on the needs of a rapidly changing population.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is promoting a statewide public works program that may be financed by a bond sale of $50 billion or more. But Barbara Baran, the author of the report, said social services deserve equal footing with reconstruction projects.
"Our primary objective is to wave a flag for policymakers," Baran said. "There's a lot of emphasis on doing something about our aging infrastructure. But that needs to be placed side by side with our other major challenges."
California is experiencing "a changing of the guard among generations," she said, "from the baby-boom generation to those that follow."
Over the two decades ending in 2020, the number of state residents age 65 and older will double to 6 million, Baran said. And, as the baby boomers move off the historical stage, a young generation of workers must develop skills to compete in a global economy, she said.
"We have to take care of our past and our future at the same time," she said. "The sheer numbers of elderly will put real pressure on medical and in-home services. At the same time, our new workers must achieve for us in the future -- they're going to be paying our Social Security."
California's population is projected to grow by about 10 million people, to 44 million, over two decades. And policymakers need to address the fact, Baran said, that the groups experiencing the greatest growth are the least-educated.
Latinos, about one-third of the state's population at the turn of the 21st century, will make up 43% of residents in 15 years, while the number of whites will drop from nearly half the population to one-third. The white population will actually decline 8% during the same period, according to state projections.
In addition, most California public school students will be Latino in less than a decade. This is a concern, the report said, because just 25% of Latinos score at "proficient and above" in English on state achievement tests, compared with 27% of blacks, 58% of whites and 62% of Asians.
