Tuesday's special election to fill Rep. Christopher Cox's seat might have been a bland affair with the Republican primary winner preordained -- year after year, congressional elections in coastal Orange County usually are.
This year, the politics of immigration have changed that.
Jim Gilchrist, cofounder of the border security group called the Minuteman Project and candidate of the American Independent Party, has run an energetic and increasingly wellfunded campaign against state Sen. John Campbell (R-Irvine). He has forced the lawmaker to renounce votes allowing illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition at state universities and to use Mexican identification cards for official purposes. And he has turned the race into a virtual referendum on immigration policy.
Even if Campbell wins the 48th Congressional District seat Tuesday -- and most political insiders think he will -- the race underscores the wedge that immigration has driven into conservative ranks across the country.
"Ross Perot did not become president" in 1992, said John J. Pitney Jr., a government professor at Claremont McKenna College and former Republican Party strategist, "but he put the [federal budget] deficit at the top of the national agenda." In much the same way, advocates of tougher controls on illegal immigration hope Gilchrist's challenge to Campbell will propel their cause.
Gilchrist supporters are hoping a strong showing will inspire congressional candidates in half a dozen border states who are weighing the campaign potency of illegal immigration.
Gilchrist's campaign has been helped by some Republican Party activists and fueled by a backlash against President Bush's guest-worker proposal. Many opponents, including Gilchrist, characterize the plan as a backdoor amnesty for illegal immigrants.
Confounding the experts, the retired accountant from Aliso Viejo has attracted national media attention and almost $500,000 in contributions -- about half the amount Campbell has raised.
"The issue of illegal immigration is below the surface just about everywhere in California," Pitney said. "It snakes through the political landscape like the San Andreas fault, and you never know when you are going to get a little tremor or a calamitous quake."
Gilchrist's persistent anti-illegal immigrant theme forced Campbell in September to apologize for his votes in the Legislature on tuition and ID cards.
