WASHINGTON — More than a year after a majority of Americans turned against his handling of the Iraq war, President Bush has launched a counteroffensive that ultimately could affect the fate of both that mission and his vision for the Middle East.
As the must-win fight of his administration, Bush's chances for success on the public opinion front appear to hinge on one central question: Is the power of the presidential bully pulpit enough to win a fight many consider as important as any military campaign in Iraq itself?
Public opinion specialists -- among whom a debate is raging -- say the outcome is far from certain.
Some, such as Ohio State University political scientist John Mueller, say Korea, Vietnam and Iraq have proved a simple correlation: Support fades as casualties mount.
Mueller said the data showed that views had so hardened that Bush had all but lost the battle for public support in Iraq. "If not hopeless, it's certainly very difficult to reverse this," Mueller, an expert on war and public opinion, said in a telephone interview.
Others believe the White House campaign has a chance -- but only if voters also detect specific progress in Iraq.
"It's events on the ground that are going to move the needle on Iraq," said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, an independent opinion research group. "Nevertheless, the president can maybe turn public opinion more quickly by keeping his position out there and by making his case."
There is broad agreement that any further loss of public support for the Iraq mission would seriously weaken Bush domestically, especially as the country moves into a midterm election year and vulnerable congressional Republicans weigh the political costs of defending an increasingly unpopular war.
On Monday, Bush will deliver the third of four major speeches before Iraqis go to the polls Thursday for the third time this year. His fourth speech will be the day before Iraqis elect a parliament for a full four-year term.
Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other administration figures also have weighed in with public remarks.
All hammer on the president's bottom-line themes: that he \o7does\f7 have a winning strategy, that Iraq is the central front in a war against terrorism, and that a premature pullout of troops would be catastrophic for America's security.
