ETHIOPIA IS edging toward renewed conflict with Eritrea that could result in tens of thousands of deaths and spark a civil war that would claim many more lives. But the Bush administration, a strong supporter of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, appears to have neither the vision nor the will to avert catastrophe.
It would not be the first time Africans died because U.S. policymakers failed to recognize the dangers of backing a ruthless, doomed regime.
In the former Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the U.S. supported former President Mobutu Sese Seko's tyrannical rule almost to its bitter end -- and more than 2 million people died in the internal wars that followed. In Liberia, the U.S. looked the other way as Samuel Doe, an illiterate thug without popular support, brutalized his population and stole the 1985 election -- and tens of thousands subsequently died. And in Sudan, the U.S. continued to give economic and military aid to then-President Gaafar Nimeiri as he fought a long civil war in which more than 2 million eventually died.
In all these cases, U.S. policymakers, despite clear evidence to the contrary, insisted that continued aid and support -- and quiet diplomacy -- were the best ways to reform a troubled client. Then, when that lie became untenable, the U.S. walked away, leaving Africans to pay the consequences.
Ethiopia is not yet Zaire, Liberia or Sudan, but the situation is dangerous because not only is unrest inside Ethiopia growing, military tensions on Ethiopia's border with Eritrea are increasing. The two countries fought a war in the late 1990s.
Meles has been a U.S. client since 1991, when his rebel movement seized power. He is good at talking the language of democracy and development -- and even more adept at manipulating Western fears of terrorism.
Parliamentary elections held in May were supposed to cement Meles' claim to be a democratic reformer. Instead, they revealed his lack of national support. According to official tabulations, disputed by opposition parties, Meles' ruling party won a majority of seats. But as Human Rights Watch reported on the eve of the May elections, Meles squashed political dissent in Oromia, the country's largest region, thus denying voters there a real choice in the elections.
