As Usual, the Question With the Bowls Is ... Who Cares?

You can attempt to pick this year's bowl winners by studying the down-and-distance charts, or do what I've come to do in recent years: examine the critical do-they-really-want-to-be-there factor.

This theory wasn't hatched from hash-mark chalk.

Consider:

* 1992 Freedom Bowl: Fresno State wanted to be in Anaheim, USC wanted to be anywhere else.

Winner: Raisin Bran.

* 2001 Las Vegas Bowl. This game was deemed to be beneath the dignity of USC's pedigree.

Utah won, 10-6.

* 2003. Texas was so angry it had been snubbed by the bowl championship series that it got even by losing to Washington State in the Holiday Bowl.

* 2004. California was bounced from the Rose to the Holiday Bowl and protested with a loss to Texas Tech.

* 2004. UCLA thought it was playing Notre Dame in the Insight Bowl until Texas butted Cal out of the Rose Bowl.

UCLA played Wyoming in Las Vegas ... and went boots up.

Applying the theory to this season's bowl games, excluding the four marquee bowl championship series games:

* New Orleans: Arkansas State is playing in its first Division I-A bowl game; Southern Mississippi isn't even getting a trip to New Orleans (game moved to Lafayette, La.).

Winner: Arkansas State

* GMAC: Texas El Paso Coach Mike Price returns to Alabama (Mobile), where he was once chased out of the state after a regrettable night in a strip bar not far down the Gulf Coast.

Winner: Toledo.

* Las Vegas: Brigham Young players will be told to enjoy the city but make sure they note that nightly bed check is at 9:30.

Winner: California.

* Poinsettia: Colorado State has a nice fan base but not enough backup battleships in San Diego harbor.

Winner: Navy.

* Fort Worth: Kansas hasn't had a star worth watching since Gale Sayers; Houston hasn't won a bowl game since 1980.

Winner: Houston, in a tough call.

* Hawaii: Nevada beat Fresno State but got a worse bowl slot; Central Florida lost the Mid-American Conference title game but still earned an expenses-paid vacation.

Winner: Central Florida.

* Motor City: Akron going to Detroit for a bowl game has to be as thrilling as touring a tire plant.

Winner: Memphis.

* Champs Sports: Colorado has been outscored, 100-6, in its last two games.

Winner: Clemson.

* Insight: Arizona State thought it was going to win the national title this year; every living Rutgers graduate is expected to attend the school's first bowl appearance since 1978.