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The NFL Draft Dilemma: Play Now or Play the Odds

The Nation

December 21, 2005|David Wharton, Times Staff Writer

Sitting in the front row, his football pants still grass-streaked from practice, Reggie Bush raised his hand. He had a question about dealing with agents.

The two former National Football League executives standing at the front of the room Tuesday did not mince words. They told the USC tailback and his teammates about agents' commissions -- "Don't pay 3%. Tell them 1%" -- and about dealing with taxes and front offices.


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"You guys are your own little business," said Joe Mendes, a former Washington Redskin vice president. "You have to figure out the best way to optimize your value."

With an undefeated team headed for the national championship game Jan. 4 at the Rose Bowl, the Trojans' roster includes a handful of juniors and sophomores talented enough and eligible, under NFL rules, to turn professional after the season. So their coach, Pete Carroll, asked two longtime friends of his, Mendes and former New York Jet executive Pat Kirwan, to give a seminar on the pros and cons of leaving school early.

Bush, the Heisman Trophy winner, is expected to enter the draft and is considered a top pick. The situation is not so clear-cut for teammates such as tailback LenDale White, offensive lineman Winston Justice and safety Darnell Bing, who said, "Agents try to get at you. There are a lot of people telling you what to do."

Every year at this time, college football's best underclassmen face a tantalizing gamble: Should they go for the money now or wait a year in hopes of making more?

If they turn pro and are chosen in the top eight spots, they can receive in excess of $13 million, guaranteed. But the figures steadily drop from there. This is where young athletes meet the business side of their game.

Last spring's top draft pick, quarterback Alex Smith, commanded a $49.5-million contract that guaranteed him $24 million, even if he proved a complete bust. By the 10th pick, former USC receiver Mike Williams, received $10.5 million guaranteed. The last selection of the round, guard Logan Mankins, signed for $4 million guaranteed.

By the second round, the average guarantee fell to $1.4 million, Kirwan said. By the third, it was $526,000.

Predicting exactly where a player might be drafted is guesswork, especially for underclassmen. They must submit their names for the draft in January -- before they have a chance to perform for scouts in private workouts or at the NFL combine, a group showcase in Indianapolis.

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