Iraq and the fortunes of war

'I \o7lyom asal\f7\o7, ilyom basal\f7" is a traditional Arab proverb. Translated literally, it means "a day of honey, a day of onions." The idea behind it is that life is filled with contradictions. Anyone doubting this truth need only consider the last year, and especially the last few weeks, in Iraq. News of millions of Iraqis voting freely for a new government shared the front page with stories describing the near-daily loss of American and Iraqi lives. There is evidence of stability and unrest, economic recovery and ruin, political progress and alienation. Almost everything said and written about Iraq is true.

On the positive side, Iraqis have voted three times in 2005, twice for a national government, once for a constitution. Their economy grew by nearly 4% this last year. Recent polls show that more than two-thirds of Iraqis are optimistic about their future. Large areas of the country are relatively safe and secure.

It also is accurate to portray the glass as half-empty. Most significant is the continuing insurgency fueled by the Sunni minority unhappy over losing its disproportionate political power. In addition, there are at least hundreds of Al Qaeda terrorists who have entered Iraq from neighboring countries. Oil output -- at 2 million barrels a day -- is no higher than it was two years ago and below what it was before the war. Electricity production is about 10% below prewar levels. And the pace of training Iraqi security personnel has been maddeningly slow; nearly three years after the war, fewer than 40,000 Iraqi police and soldiers are rated at high levels of quality.

The mixed picture also reflects political reality in the United States. Although four recent speeches by President Bush and an address to the nation from the Oval Office have bolstered domestic political support for the war, debates continue to rage over whether this war was necessary or wise, on whether the costs outweigh the benefits or vice versa. Time and energy would be better spent debating where we go from here.

As 2005 ends and 2006 begins, U.S. options are essentially two: maintaining the U.S. presence until Iraqi government forces can handle the lion's share of the burden of maintaining security, or setting an arbitrary exit date, in six or 12 months, for all U.S. troops.