WARSAW — In the crowded hallways of the Polish Parliament, there is talk of a new Cold War in which the weapons have changed from nuclear warheads to oil and gas.
The rival in a widening game of pipelines and corporate strategy is Russia and its empire of energy resources. Ninety percent of Poland's oil and much of its natural gas flow from Russia. Such equations are distressing for Poles as they rise in stature in the West while remaining in many ways subject to the political and economic whims of their past oppressor.
"Russia is exploiting its control of oil and gas as part of its foreign policy," said Jerzy Marek Nowakowski, a former national security advisor. "This is an extremely dangerous political instrument. Oil and gas are more effective for Russia today than its nuclear weapons were during communist times."
The quest for energy resources in Poland and throughout Europe is unfolding in tales of untapped reserves, frozen outposts and labyrinthine financial deals involving historical foes and new world alliances. Since the Cold War ended 15 years ago, resource-rich Russia has become crucial to a continent wary of the political chaos and unpredictable markets of the Middle East.
The changes across Eastern and Central Europe, especially the democracy movements in the former Soviet bloc, are politicizing the dynamics of energy distribution. Many analysts and legislators say Russia's agitation over democracy's eastward expansion, and its long-standing unease with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization at its borders, has persuaded Moscow to exert power through oil-and-gas diplomacy that rewards friends and punishes foes.
Such a policy, especially if it led to price increases or cuts in service, could be disastrous for the fragile economies of Poland, Ukraine and other nations trying to slip further past Russia's shadow. This week, Russia's state-controlled Gazprom natural gas monopoly threatened to cut off service to Ukraine on the first of the year if Kiev did not agree to higher prices. Russia supplies about one-third of the former Soviet republic's natural gas, and Gazprom has proposed hiking rates from $50 per 1,000 cubic meters to about $220.
Higher prices would put Ukraine more in line with rates worldwide, but an immediate fourfold increase would stun a nation whose costs have been kept low because of its former ties to Moscow.
