JERUSALEM — After more than four years of relentless bloodshed, prospects for a historic breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict probably have never been greater, as the two sides lay final groundwork for their summit next week in Egypt.
Although all high-profile summits risk the fate of fanfare followed by fizzle, the gathering in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el Sheik has the great advantage of momentum generated by significant reciprocal gestures.
In the mere four weeks since the election of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Israel and the Palestinians have made more concessions to each other than they had in the entire course of the current conflict, now in its fifth year. Israel on Thursday announced plans to withdraw its forces from five Palestinian cities, free 900 Palestinian prisoners and consider amnesty terms for wanted fugitives.
Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will meet for the first time since Abbas took office Jan. 15, under the auspices of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah II, both of whom have seen their own attempts to halt the fighting crumble.
Although the summit is being warmly welcomed on both sides, Israelis and Palestinians are keenly aware of the inherent artificiality of such an event, so at odds with the visceral reality of Palestinian suicide bombings of buses and cafes and massive Israeli military raids on Palestinian cities and refugee camps.
"I understand why a summit is needed and desired," commentator Smadar Peri wrote Thursday in the mass-circulation daily Yediot Aharonot. "But when the cameras are turned off, we will have to return to a certain reality."
In June 2003, a surge of optimism greeted a four-way summit held in Aqaba, Jordan, to formally inaugurate the "road map" peace plan. Placing his prestige on the line, Abdullah played host to President Bush, Sharon and Abbas, who was then the Palestinian Authority prime minister. Less than two months later, the promise of that moment had dissolved in a fierce new round of recriminations and bloodshed.
The key difference now is the absence of longtime Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who died Nov. 11. Israel accused him of sabotaging the Aqaba summit by systematically undermining Abbas and giving Palestinian militant groups the go-ahead to press on with attacks against Israel.
"The last few years made it clear to most living here, and neighboring countries, that the true obstacle in the way of a reasonable, regulated process that will result in a two-state solution was Arafat, and now the arena has changed," said Gilad Sher, an Israeli official and a veteran negotiator of past peace accords.
But the Sharon of today is different too. At the Aqaba summit, he had yet to unveil his groundbreaking plan to relinquish the Gaza Strip and thereby battle Jewish settlers and their right-wing supporters, who were once his most loyal partisans.
In the wake of Aqaba, as Palestinian suicide attacks continued, the Israeli leader chipped away steadily at Abbas' standing by refusing to grant concessions that would have given him much-needed credibility among his people. And Israel sloughed off its early obligations under the road map, including the dismantling of illegal settlement outposts in the West Bank.
This time around, Abbas is likely to be far more guarded in his public dealings with Sharon than during his tenure as prime minister, when he traveled to Jerusalem for a series of increasingly tense one-on-one talks that finally broke down in acrimony.
Analyst Shalom Harari, a brigadier general in the Israeli army reserves, said he believed that the decision to have the leaders' initial encounter take place in the context of a four-leader summit was aimed at quashing any notion that Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, was kowtowing to the Israeli prime minister.
"For the time being, it's better for him not to even be seen alone with Sharon; if it's under the umbrella of Mubarak and Abdullah, it's OK," Harari said. "They can talk freely on the phone, sure, but Abu Mazen knows that appearing too close to Sharon too soon could be very damaging."
Still, Abbas surprised Israel with the speed of his moves to quell attacks by militant groups. Within days of taking office, he deployed Palestinian paramilitary forces to halt militant violence and negotiated a tentative truce with such groups as Hamas. In response, Israel dramatically ramped down military activity and made pledges to ease Palestinian freedom of movement and reopen a key commercial checkpoint into the Gaza Strip.
Although little substantive negotiation is expected at the summit, both sides hinted Thursday that its centerpiece might be a declaration of truce, after nearly three weeks of relative calm.
"I hope there will be an official declaration of an armistice, on the cessation of all acts of violence," Shimon Peres, Israel's vice premier, told Army Radio on Thursday.
