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U.S.' Prewar Visions Get Further Out of Focus

THE CONFLICT IN IRAQ | NEWS ANALYSIS

February 23, 2005|Patrick J. McDonnell and Paul Richter, Times Staff Writers

One senior administration official declined to say how U.S. officials viewed Jafari. "We have a studied neutrality on that," he said.

But officials have cause for concern. Although Jafari has said publicly that he supports human rights and an inclusive government, he also wants religion to play a key role in the country's affairs. Jafari was one of the Shiite Muslim leaders who walked out during deliberations on Iraq's transitional law because he feared that Islam would not be made the sole source of law.


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Juan Cole, an expert on Iraq at the University of Michigan, said Jafari might not suit the Americans as well as Allawi would have, but he was not expected to be hostile.

"He'll get along with them," Cole said.

Still, some here worry that Shiite clerics could pressure Jafari. The Khomeini-like image of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Iranian-born spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites, was ubiquitous on campaign posters before the Jan. 30 election for the transitional national assembly. Sistani's tacit endorsement was considered key to the success of Jafari's slate.

The assurances by Jafari and other slate leaders of moderation and independence from Iran have failed to mollify fears that Tehran could wield significant influence in the new government. The slate's two major Shiite parties -- Jafari's Dawa Party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq -- are seen by some Iraqis as Iranian fronts. U.S. officials are convinced that both parties receive financial aid from Iran.

Defense Minister Hazem Sha laan, a secular Shiite, derided the slate as "an Iranian list."

Jafari and other Shiite leaders have noted the Arab character of their slate and say they resent the second-class treatment of Arabs in Iran, which has a Persian majority.

U.S. officials and others here hope that the Shiites' power will be checked by Iraq's ethnic Kurds, who received the second-largest number of votes in the election. The Kurds, by most accounts, would oppose any Shiite efforts to turn the country toward religious rule.

The Kurds control a bloc of 75 seats in the 275-seat transitional legislature, which will ensure their role as "kingmakers," as one Western official put it. The Shiite slate won 140 seats, well short of the two-thirds needed to win key votes. And that slate, which includes a cross-section of political and religious groups, could fracture, experts warn. Still, there is little question that the Shiite Islamists are in the strongest position as Iraq lurches toward some form of representative democracy.

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