WASHINGTON — Although Bush administration officials see the Palestinian election as an important opportunity to work toward Middle East peace, they will move cautiously until they are convinced that the new president can curb extremist violence, State Department officials said.
The United States will focus its immediate efforts on supporting the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip planned for this summer, officials said. The U.S. may also resume providing direct aid to the impoverished area and training for Palestinian security forces.
"We are not going to stand by and let this government fail," a State Department official said. "Additional assistance will certainly be considered."
But Washington still wants progress from the new Palestinian Authority government in taming the activities of the militant organizations Hamas and Islamic Jihad, even if the post of president goes to U.S. favorite Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen.
However, administration officials are trying to damp expectations of a dramatic breakthrough. They believe that the new Palestinian leadership may need time to get its house in order.
However, two Middle Eastern diplomats warned that without the Bush administration's aggressive support and willingness to push Israel toward peace talks, a President Abbas is likely to fail in diplomacy.
The margin of Abbas' expected victory in Sunday's election is considered crucial, and the Bush administration is hoping for a decisive win. Outsiders, however, warn that a boycott of the election by Hamas may leave Abbas with a fragile majority and a weak power base.
It would be misguided to overestimate Abbas' power, a senior Middle Eastern diplomat said. "He's going to find it very hard to steer the Palestinian people, and that will require an intensive effort from the American administration, to exert more [pressure] on both the Israelis and the Palestinians."
Arab officials have long accused the White House of supporting Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's uncompromising stance toward the Palestinians.
"If they keep pushing the Palestinians to the limit, the first scapegoat will be Abu Mazen himself, and if Abu Mazen goes, you'll find yourself in real civil strife," the diplomat said. Other Palestinian Authority leaders, including Prime Minister Ahmed Korei, he explained, would be even weaker than Abbas and less able to counter the militants' influence.
