With just eight weeks to go before the Los Angeles mayoral election, the leading candidates are seeking to win over critical voting blocs in a city whose electoral math has become as complex as its electorate.
Latinos, African Americans, Republicans, San Fernando Valley residents and Westside liberals -- groups that were once almost predictable in their allegiances -- are up for grabs.
And the candidates are drawing up a wide range of strategies and messages in the run-up to the March 8 election.
Hahn and Parks -- An article in Sunday's Section A reported that Los Angeles Mayor James K. Hahn did not reappoint Bernard C. Parks as police chief. Hahn chose not to support Parks for another term, but the decision not to reappoint him was made by the Police Commission, whose members are appointed by the mayor.
Mayor James K. Hahn is the best-known and best-funded candidate. But each of his major opponents -- Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg, Councilman Bernard C. Parks and state Sen. Richard Alarcon -- has an ethnic or geographic strength to exploit.
These candidates, with their overlapping bases of support, could easily fracture once-united blocs, many political observers say. With five veteran politicians in the race, no one is likely to capture a majority in March and win outright.
Early polls by candidates and their allies show that Hahn and Villaraigosa are the leading contenders to advance to a May runoff election, though that could change.
"You can't predict what coalitions may emerge," said Raphael Sonenshein, a Cal State Fullerton political scientist who has been studying Los Angeles political campaigns for more than 20 years. "Things are just not as stable and predictable as they once were."
For most of the last four decades, the city was divided largely along clear ideological lines as liberals and conservatives fought for control of the corner office in City Hall.
A conservative bloc kept Sam Yorty in power through the 1960s. But in the '70s and '80s, a liberal coalition of African American and Westside Jewish voters pushed Tom Bradley to five victories.
In the 1990s, the alignment shifted again. A coalition led by white San Fernando Valley voters and Westside Democrats jarred by the 1992 riots combined to give Republican Richard Riordan two terms as mayor.
When Riordan left office in 2001, Hahn was elected with an entirely new coalition of conservative Valley voters and African Americans loyal to his late father, legendary county Supervisor Kenneth Hahn, who represented South Los Angeles for 40 years.
Within a year of taking office, however, the younger Hahn found himself at odds with the two pillars of his electoral coalition.
- Alarcon to Run Against Hahn Mar 09, 2004
- Big Numbers That Finally Add Up May 19, 2005
- Limits on Gifts From Bidders Are OKd Sep 23, 2004
