The Crisis of 'Sam's Club' Republicans

This wasn't always the case. In 1980, the federal tax burden was a serious problem, and slashing taxes for the middle class was genuinely populist because it was genuinely popular. But after President Reagan closed countless loopholes and lowered rates and President Clinton shifted the tax burden onto those most able to pay, the most pressing problems faced by working families weren't too-high taxes but rather the rising costs of healthcare and of raising children.

Somehow, K Street conservatives -- the revolving-door clique of high-powered lobbyists, congressional staffers, administration officials and think-tank true believers that defines the Republican agenda -- never got the memo. Slashing taxes and "starving the beast" of government remained the order of the day.

As a presidential candidate, George W. Bush challenged this cozy consensus. Maudlin and focus-grouped though it sounded, "compassionate conservatism" was more than a marketing gimmick. Or so it seemed.

When he got into office, Bush's real first priority turned out to be deep, across-the-board tax reductions. The second priority was ... more deep tax cuts. As for healthcare, the cost of child-rearing and wage stagnation -- issues that hit close to home for the lower-middle-class strivers -- Bush has offered proposals that were either laughably timid or hugely counterproductive.

Take healthcare. In the face of a massive and growing number of uninsured Americans -- and no, they're not all healthy people lackadaisically choosing to live dangerously -- Bush called for "association health plans," which would, at best, lead to coverage for 330,000 of the roughly 42 million uninsured. "Let them eat cake" is the phrase that comes to mind.

Chances are that Democrats will miss this opportunity to win over GOP voters with economic populism that sells. They'll offer child care subsidies for professional women, but will they stand up for the millions of middle-class American women who want to be homemakers? Will they subsidize large families, rewarding parents for sacrificing personal comfort to raise the next generation of taxpayers? And will they back efforts to curb illegal immigration? Don't hold your breath.

But if Republicans don't shift gears, the Democrats' window of opportunity will widen, and left-wing populism could take off. When that happens, you won't see Clintonian micro-initiatives to help the middle class. Not by a long shot. Job-killing protectionism and overregulation will come roaring back, and so will stagflation.

Politicians are often vilified for pandering to their base, but on matters economic, the GOP needs to do more of it. By focusing on the interests of Sam's Club voters, farsighted conservatives can build a lasting majority. But if the party's agenda continues to be set on K Street, we'll soon be talking about "the emerging Republican minority."