An Election of and by Ghosts
BEIRUT — There are plenty of reasons to be hopeful and worried about Sunday's election for an interim parliament in Iraq.
First, the bad news: Every possible result is riddled with problems. The election is hampered from the start by its illegitimate lineage. It has been spawned by an American-led military invasion, incubated in an American-led military occupation and administration, designed by a mildly credible combination of Iraqi and U.N. officials working -- literally and figuratively -- under the gun of the United States, and administered by an interim Iraqi administration that has "made in Washington" stamped all over it.
There will be no certain, easy or quick solutions to the postelection dilemma the U.S. has created for itself in Iraq. If the U.S. military stays too long, it generates ever more political resentment and armed resistance -- in Iraq, the Middle East and the world. If the U.S. military departs too soon, it risks unleashing a civil war and possible partition of Iraq, which spells trouble for the entire region.
If Washington pulls off an orderly and clean election, it may create a Shiite-dominated, Iran-friendly political system that frightens many of its Sunni-run or secular Arab neighbors (as Jordan's Washington-friendly King Abdullah II has already said publicly). Some in this region also worry about postelection tensions between Iraqis and Iranians, given the historical sensitivities between Persian and Arab Shiites.
It is also bad news that this election is being conducted by ghosts and invisible partisans -- it's the world's first virtual election, of and by those who cannot be seen or touched. Most candidates and potential voters are not making themselves clearly known in public, for fear of being killed. Likewise, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Shiite cleric who will probably dominate the country's political, religious and moral life, is rarely if ever seen in public.
As Condoleezza Rice acknowledged, nobody said this was going to be easy. But nobody said either that the symbol of Iraqi democracy would be Casper the Friendly Ghost.
There is also good news. This election is potentially the most significant step to date on the road to liberation, sovereignty and normalcy for Iraqis. Even if things go wrong Sunday, this could be the moment in which Iraq starts moving toward credible statehood.
