BEIJING — When the United States, North Korea and four other nations return to the negotiating table Tuesday to resume long-stalled talks on ending the Pyongyang government's nuclear weapons program, it might well be their last chance for a breakthrough.
Three previous rounds of discussions in Beijing dating back to 2003 were heavy on posturing and light on engagement. The last, in June 2004, ended without progress, and it has taken more than a year of intense diplomacy to lure North Korea back to negotiations.
In the meantime, the reclusive communist country has declared unequivocally that it possesses nuclear weapons, deepening international concern about its arsenal. Some officials in Washington began talking about taking the issue to the United Nations Security Council or finding other coercive means to deal with the matter.
So this time, many analysts say, both Pyongyang and Washington sense that much more is at stake. In the run-up to the talks, both have been signaling a willingness to be more flexible.
Success, experts believe, will hinge on two main factors: whether the envoys at the talks can really negotiate, and whether the parties can agree on the order of disarmament steps and rewards for North Korea.
"The question is sequencing," said Bonnie Glaser, senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "What has to be done first? We have to see the political will on both sides."
In the past, Washington has rejected the idea of benefits for North Korea until it dismantles its nuclear program. Pyongyang -- which wants security guarantees, energy assistance and other aid -- has demanded incremental rewards as it takes steps to disarm.
In recent weeks, North Korea has said that denuclearizing the Korean peninsula was the dying wish of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung. Some analysts see that as a sign that Pyongyang is prepared to compromise.
In another step that several experts saw as positive, North Korea said Friday that one way to end the standoff would be for the U.S. to normalize relations with it and sign a peace treaty to replace the cease-fire that ended the Korean War five decades ago.
"This was clearly North Korea's effort to shape the next round of talks," Glaser said, "not torpedo it."
Paik Hak Soon, a North Korea expert at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, agreed.
