Hold the Confetti
There's a seductive theory making the rounds that an expanded "Bush Doctrine" has planted seeds of democracy in the Middle East that are already bearing fruit. Editorial pages and columnists are making the argument that the invasion of Iraq, despite its messy aftermath, and the toppling of Saddam Hussein have led inexorably to elections in Arab lands. All aboard the freedom train!
Not so fast.
The Jan. 30 election for Iraq's transitional national assembly was certainly an impressive display of courage: Men and women voted in the face of death threats from insurgents who had proved their ability to kill almost at will. But ballots have not yet diminished the carnage. This week a suicide bomber blew up his car in a crowded market south of Baghdad, killing as many as 125 people in the single bloodiest attack in the country since the fall of Hussein nearly two years ago. The grind of violence, directed equally at the Shiite majority and anyone who might aid the U.S.-backed government, may still trigger a civil war or other disintegration of Iraq.
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Dynastic Power
Even without such violence, elections do not equal freedom. Egypt has had elections of sorts for more than 40 years; fat lot of good they've done. After the 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, his successor, Hosni Mubarak, offered Egyptians the chance to vote yes or no every six years on his dictatorial rule. On Saturday, Mubarak announced a major change: Other candidates can run against him in this year's presidential election. But because Mubarak has ruled under a state of emergency since taking power and was vague about what qualifications might be required of candidates, Egyptians understandably doubt the change will mean much. Most believe Mubarak will use it to smooth the way for the eventual accession of his son, Gamal, to the presidency.
In Syria, Bashar Assad took over after the 29-year presidential term of his father, Hafez Assad, ended with the senior Assad's death in June 2000. The son has kept 16,000 Syrian troops in next-door Lebanon. The assassination two weeks ago of a Lebanese leader critical of Syria sparked massive street protests and demands from the United States, France and other nations that the soldiers be withdrawn. On Monday, Lebanon's pro-Syrian government quit. Though this is held by the sunny-siders to be another proof of their thesis, Syria's undisguised power of arms in Lebanon suggests much less than a march to peaceful independence.
