WASHINGTON — President Bush's proposal to overhaul Social Security is falling flat across the country, to judge from recent polls, but public opinion is not his only problem. The whole idea splits Bush's party -- along fault lines he masterfully bridged during his first term in the White House.
A Social Security overhaul is the Holy Grail for the GOP's free-market advocates, but it is a low priority for social conservatives who care more about banning abortion and same-sex marriage. The costly initiative gives heartburn to the party's antideficit hawks. Even some of the Republicans' loyal business allies are lukewarm on Bush's effort to rewrite the program and allow workers to divert part of their Social Security payroll taxes into personal retirement accounts.
The divisions highlight potential weaknesses in the GOP coalition that Bush hopes to turn into an enduring governing majority by the time he leaves the White House.
On Capitol Hill, the open disagreement among Republicans over the issue -- and over the political strategy for dealing with it -- is a departure from the unity and discipline they showed on most major issues during Bush's first term.
That is in part because overhauling Social Security is a more ambitious and politically difficult issue than Bush's priorities in his first term -- such as tax cuts and Medicare expansion -- which tended to unify rather than divide his party. All but two Republicans in Congress voted for his 2001 tax cut. Republicans of all stripes had campaigned for years for providing prescription drug coverage under Medicare.
Not so for changing Social Security.
"This does not have strong unanimity among Republicans in Congress or the rank and file," said Eddie Mahe, a GOP political consultant and former party official. "It is not an issue that galvanizes Republicans like tax cuts, that is for sure."
Republicans have been talking in general terms for the last few elections about revamping the popular retirement program. But few have gotten into the politically risky details of how to shore up the system to accommodate the retirement of the baby boom generation.
The problem facing Congress is that when the baby boom begins to retire, the program will have to pay out more in benefits than it collects in payroll taxes. Eventually -- around 2042 or 2052 -- it is projected to be insolvent. Many analysts argue that it will take a combination of benefit cuts and tax increases to restore fiscal balance to the program.
