Why Senate Is Taking Filibusters to the Mat

WASHINGTON — Welcome to May Madness, Washington style.

The Senate is careening toward a showdown over federal judges that poses enormous political risks for Republicans and Democrats. But neither side seems willing or able to stop it.

The fight over President Bush's controversial judicial nominees threatens to paralyze the Senate. Unless someone blinks, it could be a defining political moment on par with the 1995-1996 federal government shutdown.

Both sides have reason to fear the fight will reinforce negative images of their party: Republicans as ideologues who care more about appeasing their conservative base than about governing; Democrats as obstructionists who have no constructive policy alternatives.

But in the current political environment, the collision increasingly seems unavoidable -- and could happen as soon as this week. At issue is the GOP's threat to ban a senator's right to filibuster judicial nominations, which would be a rare change in Senate rules that Democrats and some Republicans have dubbed the "nuclear option."

If the rule change passes, Democrats have said they would retaliate by hobbling the ability of Senate Republicans to advance major initiatives, such as Bush's energy policy or limits on some types of lawsuits.

Republicans are pressing to bar the filibuster for judicial nominees -- and Democrats are warning they will have a tough response if that happens -- because of the key decisions federal judges make on politically charged issues such as gay rights, abortion limits and religion in public places. Republicans fervently want Bush's more conservative choices to join the federal bench, and Democrats are just as determined to keep them off.

Still, both sides are plotting their strategies in the dispute with trepidation because of the prospect of a Senate meltdown if the GOP wins the filibuster battle.

"There's a risk for Republicans of not getting things done, when part of their strategy is to prove they can govern," said Dan Meyer, who was chief of staff to then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga) during the 1995-1996 budget battle with President Clinton that led to the partial government shutdown. "But on the Democrats' side ... they run the risk Republicans ran 10 years ago of grinding the joint to a stop. That doesn't play well."

Some Senate strategists say there remains a slender chance an agreement can be reached that avoids a faceoff. But so far, both sides are gearing up for a fight.