Survey of Voters Maps Subtle Splits
WASHINGTON — The American political landscape has tilted decidedly toward Republicans since President Bush was first elected in 2000, but that may not result in the enduring political realignment he has sought, according to a major new study of public attitudes.
The national survey released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that Republicans had gained, in part, by winning increased support from the middle of the political spectrum -- a part of the electorate less inclined toward the GOP in 1999, the last time the center conducted such a broad study.
Andrew Kohut, the nonpartisan research center's director, said the new finding was a testament to Bush's personal popularity among many voters -- even as his job approval ratings had sunk below 50% -- and to the strength of his leadership on national security issues. That, however, raises questions about whether Republican gains will outlast Bush's presidency -- or fade if the public's focus shifts from foreign to domestic policy.
"The landscape coming out of the 2004 election favored Republicans, but there's no guarantee that Republicans have solidified their hold on things," Kohut said. "It isn't structural change."
What is more, he said, the survey found Republican-inclined voters were increasingly divided over domestic issues, such as the environment, as well as fundamental questions about the size and reach of government.
The report found divisions among Democratic-inclined voters on other issues such as the role of religion in politics, painting a more complex portrait of the two parties than the conventional view that the country is polarized between the "red" states that voted for Bush in 2000 and in 2004 and the "blue" states that did not.
"There are many more shades to the American political landscape than just the red and blue dividing the electoral college maps," the report said.
Assessing possible candidates for president in 2008, the survey found that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) had staged a comeback in public opinion. Approval ratings for Clinton -- who was a controversial first lady in the 1990s and now is considered a leading presidential contender -- jumped to 57% in December 2004, up from 47% in December 2002.
The center also sought opinions about seven leading Republicans and found that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was viewed favorably by 57% of those surveyed -- a popularity rating exceeded only by former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (60%) and Sen. John McCain of Arizona (59%).
