The latest outbreak of polio, which has spread from Nigeria as far as Indonesia, is the result of an untimely confluence of religion, war and waning vaccination efforts in some countries.
Since 2003 -- when the virus started to spread from Africa to the Middle East to Asia -- new infections have been reported in 17 countries that had been declared free of the disease.
Most of those countries have reported only sporadic cases, but Yemen now faces a major outbreak with 63, and Indonesia, which has reported eight cases so far, may be on the verge of a significant flare-up.
Each known case typically represents up to 200 undetected infections, so the virus is far more widely distributed than the statistics indicate.
With the summer approaching -- the high season for polio transmission -- the $4-billion global effort to stamp out the disease, led by the World Health Organization, is facing its most serious challenge since it began its campaign in 1988.
"These are not small setbacks," said Dr. Donald A. Henderson, who led the effort that rid the world of smallpox in 1980. "It's a daunting set of problems they have ahead."
Dr. Bruce Aylward, coordinator of global polio eradication for WHO, said he was confident that the agency would meet its goal of ending polio transmission this year or in early 2006.
The eradication campaign has launched a massive drive to vaccinate 77 million children across Africa to quell the outbreak.
But given the hardiness of the virus, the poverty of countries in which it thrives and the easy flow of people between continents, some scientists question whether it is realistic or prudent to expect that polio will ever disappear."I don't think we can ever stop vaccinating -- or should," said Dr. Mark A. Miller, associate director for research of the Fogarty International Center, a part of the National Institutes of Health. "The sooner we come to terms with that, the better we'll all be."
Despite the latest outbreak, the campaign against polio has been among the most successful in medical history, ranking close to the eradication of smallpox, which is the only major human disease that has been wiped out.
Only a few decades ago, polio was among the world's most feared diseases, a scourge found in nearly every corner of the globe. Spread from person to person or via tainted bathing or drinking water, polio kills by attacking the nervous system. It can cause total paralysis in hours.
