SACRAMENTO — Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered next week's special election to take his agenda to "the people," but his campaign strategy relies on relatively few people showing up next Tuesday and large segments of voters staying home.
The governor's plan -- "micro-targeting" voters, advertising in selected markets to reach them and conducting daily polls to augur the political mood -- is guided by a single premise: If every Democrat and every Republican in California votes next week, Schwarzenegger's measures are likely to lose.
The Republican governor entered the final week of the special election campaign invoking the bipartisan "people's revolt" that swept him to power in the recall campaign two years ago. But his strategy for getting voters to the polls focuses on a small group of loyal Republicans to support the initiatives he has endorsed on the ballot.
There are about 1.2 million more Democrats than Republicans in California, and major public opinion surveys have shown that none of the governor's measures is winning. With those statistics in mind, Schwarzenegger's campaign has put many of its resources into just motivating loyal Republicans.
"The world is run by those who show up," said Ron Nehring, vice chairman of the California Republican Party, who is helping Schwarzenegger get GOP supporters to the polls.
Off-year elections tend to elicit a low turnout. And the special election is about ideas rather than candidates, with a ballot containing eight statewide initiatives -- four embraced by Schwarzenegger. Voters tend to engage less in a debate over initiatives than in deciding who will represent them, election experts say.
In addition, television ads by the governor's opponents encouraging a "no" vote on his measures have blanketed the airwaves -- something experts said also could discourage people from showing up.
A week from today, the governor wants voters to approve Proposition 74, which would make it more difficult for teachers to earn tenure; Proposition 75, which would restrict public employee unions' collection of dues for politics; Proposition 76, which would cap state spending and give governors more control over the budget; and Proposition 77, which would strip legislators of the authority to draw their own districts.
