WASHINGTON — With his nomination of Samuel A. Alito Jr., President Bush has offered the clear-cut choice about the Supreme Court's direction that activists on the right have been expecting -- even demanding -- throughout his presidency.
Activists on both sides believe the selection of Alito, a federal appellate judge with a staunchly conservative record, to replace moderate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor could crystallize the debate over issues such as abortion, civil rights and the court's overall role in society more sharply than any nomination since President George H.W. Bush picked Clarence Thomas in 1991.
"This appointment clearly moves the debate out of the gray and into the black and white," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a leading social conservative group. "This is an important moment in American history that has been decades in the making."
But this confrontation might not unfold the way either side expects.
Democrats and their allied interest groups quickly mobilized for a fight, issuing much more critical statements than they did when Bush nominated John G. Roberts Jr. and Harriet E. Miers to the court.
But for all the fervor they displayed, Alito's opponents face the challenge of generating significant public resistance to a nominee whose legal credentials are unquestioned. That hurdle proved far greater than Democrats expected during the confirmation of Roberts as chief justice in September.
Conversely, Bush faces the risk that a victory could impose a heavy cost. Even if opponents cannot generate enough pressure to block Alito's Senate confirmation, a highly partisan and ideological fight could further damage Bush's weakened position with swing voters -- and inflict collateral damage on Republican senators struggling with an inhospitable election climate for 2006.
"Bush will probably win this fight, but at what price?" said the top political advisor to one Republican senator, who asked not to be named when discussing Alito's nomination.
If nothing else, the choice of Alito illuminated Bush's political priorities for the weeks ahead.
After months of bad news and miscalculations -- which culminated last week in the indictment of Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, the 2,000th American military death in Iraq and the withdrawal of Miers' nomination to the Supreme Court -- Bush's approval rating has fallen to about 40% in recent polls.
