After reading a magazine article on "The Next Killer Flu," Cindy Gesner felt sick with worry.
The Malibu mother of three wondered what would happen to her young boys if a lethal bird-flu pandemic hit. Would there be enough antiviral drugs for them? Or would the limited supply of Tamiflu in the United States run out?
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Wednesday November 09, 2005 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 1 inches; 64 words Type of Material: Correction
Flu fears -- An article in Saturday's California section about the increased demand for flu medication said a Los Angeles doctor had refused to give a prescription for Tamiflu to musician Ernie Fields Jr., and a photo caption with the article said Fields got Tamiflu with the help of a pharmacist friend. In fact, the L.A. doctor prescribed the drug to Fields on Thursday.
She immediately asked her sons' pediatrician to prescribe some for a family stash.
Forget it, the doctor told her, explaining that the bird flu wasn't an immediate threat.
Gesner was reassured -- at least until her brother called from the East Coast. "He said, 'Everyone has it. Go get it.' "
So she did.
Gesner is among a growing number of worried well people, as alarmed about avian flu as many were about the anthrax threat four years ago. Back then the drive was to find Cipro, the supposed magic-bullet antibiotic.
Now, it's a race for Tamiflu.
It is no magic bullet, but it could be the best protection available if, as some health forecasters fear, the bird flu hits with the force of the global flu pandemic in 1918. For the near term, there is no commercially available vaccine for the avian virus, H5N1, which has killed about half of the 122 people reported as infected. All of the deaths were in Southeast Asia.
As concern about bird flu draws national headlines, people are growing more intent on snagging a personal supply of antiviral medication, mainly Tamiflu. Doctors say patients are arriving with news clippings in hand, bent on leaving with a signed white slip of security.
But their task has become tougher. This week, scattered pharmacies in Southern California reported that they were out of Tamiflu, which was originally designed to reduce the severity of the conventional flu. And the sole manufacturer, Roche, announced it had suspended sales to nongovernment sources in the United States.
The reason: to discourage hoarding.
The U.S. strategic stockpile has about 2.3 million doses of Tamiflu, with an additional 2 million on order, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. But for an effective response in a flu pandemic, at least 81 million treatment courses of approved antiviral drugs would need to be stockpiled, according to the national Pandemic Influenza Plan.
Although generic manufacturers may enter the market to ease the squeeze -- and ramping up production may not take nearly as long as originally predicted -- not everyone is content to wait.
